Seasonality and spatial heterogeneity of confirmed malaria in Senegal (2009-2025): consistency with VECTRI simulations driven by ten bias-adjusted CMIP6 models and projected changes

Background. Malaria transmission in Senegal is seasonal and spatially heterogeneous, but the consistency of dynamical malaria models with routine surveillance has rarely been tested with monthly subnational data. Methods. We analysed monthly confirmed cases from the National Malaria Control Programme (PNLP) regional database (14 regions, 2009-2025) and reports of the 79 health districts (2016-2025). Ten bias-adjusted NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models (1995-2014; SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 to 2100) were evaluated against CHIRPS rainfall; VECTRI was driven by MRI-ESM2-0, the model closest to the ensemble median

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