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medRxiv PreprintsInternational9 November 2026

Relationship between Excess Mortality Derived from Death Counts and Age-Standardised Mortality Rates: The Case of Germany During the COVID-19 Pandemic

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Excess mortality can be estimated from crude death counts or from age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs). Although both approaches are widely used, their analytical relationship and the effects of methodological choices such as standard population, age-group definition, and baseline selection are not always explicitly considered. The analytical relationship between relative excess mortality based on death counts and ASMRs was derived and both approaches were applied to mortality in Germany during the COVID19 pandemic 2020-2023. Expected mortality was estimated by linear extrapolation of pre-
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