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medRxiv PreprintsInternational8 November 2026

Investigating Climate-Driven Disruption of Malaria Transmission Following the 2022 Sindh, Pakistan Floods: An Interrupted Time Series Study

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Malaria remains a major global public health challenge in developing countries, with climate change intensifying its impact, particularly in vulnerable populations. Rising temperatures can expand the geographic range and local abundance of malaria vectors, Anopheles mosquitoes, which thrive in warm climates, with 25C representing the optimal temperature for malaria transmission. In Pakistan, malaria is primarily spread through P. falciparum and P. vivax. Pakistan is one of the seven countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region that accounts for 98% of the total malaria burden in the region. R
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