Impact of vaccination coverage and timing on recent yellow fever outbreaks in Africa: a modeling study

Background: Multiple recent yellow fever (YF) outbreaks have occurred despite a highly effective vaccine. Increasing vaccination coverage and decreasing response times have been key components of the Eliminate Yellow Fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy. However, the combined impacts of these factors on YF outbreaks, especially since implementation of the EYE strategy in 2017, remain uncertain. Methods: We developed mathematical models to simulate the effects of vaccination coverage and timing, calibrating them to recent YF outbreaks in Ghana (2021-2022) and South Sudan (2023-2024). We then projecte

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