Early Prediction of Discharge Outcomes in Geriatric Rehabilitation: Development and Temporal Validation of a Multiclass Model

To develop and validate a model that predicts on day 7 of subacute rehabilitation (timed to inform the first multidisciplinary team meeting) the probabilities of three mutually exclusive outcomes: minimal dependency, nursing-care dependency, or medical deterioration. Design: Retrospective cohort study with temporal validation. Multinomial regression and XGBoost models were trained on 80% of admissions during the years 2016-2024 of members of the largest national health maintenance organization (HMO), tested on the remaining 20% and members of other HMOs, and validated on year 2025 admissions.

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