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medRxiv PreprintsInternational12 November 2026

Discrete dynamic survival analysis of epidemic case line lists

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Case line lists, which record dates of onset, recovery, and hospitalisation, are among the most granular data in infectious disease epidemiology and can provide insights into transmission dynamics. Dynamic survival analysis (DSA) fits a deterministic, differential-equation-based model to line lists to estimate parameters such as infectivity and the infectious period. Infectious periods are usually not exponential, and incorporating this into mechanistic models for line-list data often requires partial differential equation (PDE) schemes that can be difficult to implement and must be customised
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