Development and 10-year validation of QRISK4-Lifetime for cardiovascular risk prediction in 13 million adults

Objective To develop QRISK4-Lifetime to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk to age 95, compare its 10-year performance with QRISK4 and examine differences in risk classification between the two time horizons. Methods We used the linked electronic health datasets and cohort framework of the original QRISK4 study. We fitted sex-specific cause-specific Cox models for incident CVD and death from other causes, using attained age at cohort entry. Predicted risks combined both cause-specific hazards. We assessed discrimination and calibration at 10 years overall, by age and ethnicity. We compa

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