Risk-benefit assessment of oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation using virtual clinical trials

Abstract Background: Oral anticoagulation (OAC) reduces stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), and screening can enable earlier AF detection and OAC initiation. However, the population-level trade-off between stroke prevention and OAC-related major bleeding for different types of AF and OAC therapy remains uncertain, and large randomized trials to resolve this are costly and time-consuming. Methods: A state-transition Markov-like model was developed to: 1) simulate the lifetime course of AF, stroke, major bleeding, and death in different virtual populations; 2) quantify benefit

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