Place-based structural disadvantage and mortality inequality across 379 Polish counties, 2010-2025: a spatial Mundlak analysis

Place-based mortality inequalities may persist even as short-term associations with local conditions change. We examined age-sex-standardised all-cause mortality in 379 harmonised Polish counties (2010-2025), asking whether durable between-county differences or lagged within-county deviations better characterise mortality geography. Spatial Mundlak generalised additive models allowed non-linear associations and county-specific spatial modification; a pre-COVID model (2010-2019) was compared with overlapping models through 2022 and 2025. In the pre-COVID model, median county average partial slo

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