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medRxiv PreprintsInternational4 November 2026

Medication history, not clinical profiles, predicts antihypertensive treatment persistence across health systems

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Background. Hypertension control remains poor worldwide, in large part because patients discontinue antihypertensive treatment. Machine-learning (ML) prediction models for medication persistence are typically single-country and cross-sectional, rarely compared with simple clinical information, and lack external validation across health systems. Methods. We harmonized three prospective aging cohorts -- the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), and the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) -- including adults aged >
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