Generation-time distortion is an emergent property of epidemic control

We find that a vast space of public health interventions necessarily reshape the intervals between successive infections, known as generation times, for directly-transmitted infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19, Ebola virus, influenza). While some studies have connected specific interventions (e.g., contact-tracing, isolation) to shifted generation times, most epidemiological analyses assume these intervals are stationary. We reveal that this assumption is substantially more fragile than previously recognised. We develop a universal microscopic representation for all intervention mechanisms tha

This content is for informational purposes only and is not medical advice. It is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Consult a healthcare professional before starting any supplement, treatment, or program: especially if you are pregnant, nursing, taking medication, or managing a health condition.