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medRxiv PreprintsInternational4 November 2026

Estimating duration in sex work from cross-sectional studies: a Bayesian global synthesis suggests shorter durations

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Durations selling sex are key determinants of HIV/STI transmission dynamics and service coverage. Such durations are usually estimated from cross-sectional surveys of people actively selling sex. However, cross-sectional surveys are more likely to include individuals selling sex for longer, and survey-reported durations will be right-censored. Prior works have not adequately addressed these two competing biases. In this paper, we derive the mathematical relationship between the distribution of durations reported in cross-sectional surveys and the distribution of true durations in the populatio
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