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medRxiv PreprintsInternational6 November 2026

Classical machine learning versus transformers for predicting daily psychological distress from passive smartphone sensing and self-report: a prospective cohort study

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Objective: We test whether data collected from daily passive smartphone sensing and self-reports can predict daily significant psychological distress with meaningful potential clinical utility, comparing across best-in-class machine learning algorithms. Methods: In this prospective cohort study, 169 community-dwelling adults completed baseline surveys followed by 7 days of passive smartphone sensing (accelerometer, GPS, power state) and end-of-day Brief Symptom Inventory-18 (BSI-18) assessments. Cases were defined as days (total n = 1,062) where participants' psychological distress measured wi
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