Quantifying the current and future risk of West Nile virus and Usutu virus in humans and horses across England and Wales using an R0-based suitability metric

In England and Wales, Usutu virus (USUV) was detected in 2020 and is now established. West Nile virus (WNV) has so far only been detected in a single location, in two Aedes vexans mosquito pools sampled during 2023 surveillance. Given the growing threat to the UK from Culex-borne viruses there is a need to undertake risk assessments to contribute to preparedness and surveillance strategy for both viruses across human and animal health sectors. Here, we present the first application of a mechanistic R0-based model, incorporating temperature dependence and combining data on vector species distri

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