Nominal and real cigarette Price trends from a global dataset, 2008-2024 and implications for the World Health Organization's 3 by 35 initiative: a longitudinal study and forecasting analysis

Introduction In July 2025, WHO launched the 3 by 35 Initiative calling on countries to increase real prices of tobacco, alcohol, and sugary drinks by at least 50% by 2035 to secure an additional $ 1 trillion in public revenue. While the effectiveness of excise taxes and prices in reducing tobacco use is well-documented, the feasibility of this call to action has not been evaluated empirically across the world. Methods Trend changes in countries nominal and inflation-adjusted retail prices were investigated using the most-sold brand of cigarettes over windows ranging from 2 to 16 years over the

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