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medRxiv PreprintsInternational6 October 2026

Cause-specific mortality attributable to summer heat in Italy, 2004-2023: a nationwide Bayesian spatiotemporal study

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Background Italy experiences a substantial heat-related mortality burden, but evidence on cause-specific mortality across its heterogeneous climatic settings remains limited. We aimed to quantify cause-specific mortality attributable to summer heat in Italy at national and ecological region levels and to map its distribution across municipalities. Methods We analysed daily deaths classified by underlying cause in eight ICD-10 groups among individuals aged 18-64 years and 65 years or older across 7,864 municipalities during June-August, 2004-2023. Mortality data were linked to area-weighted ERA
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