Prediction of incident inflammatory bowel disease from routine electronic health records: development and external validation of a longitudinal machine learning model

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is often diagnosed months to years after symptoms begin, and diagnostic delay is associated with complications. We tested whether longitudinal machine learning using electronic health record (EHR) data can identify incident IBD before diagnosis, and quantified lead time and deployment burden. METHODS: We studied adults with an IBD-compatible symptom, sign, or finding at UCSF (2012-2024). Incident cases were confirmed by structured filtering and validated large language model note review. We trained a state space model (Mamba) and comparators

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