Performance of the Heatwave ED Forecast Tool in the Emergency Department Network of Ticino Canton, Switzerland

Objectives: Heatwaves drive surges in acute care demand, yet heat-health action plans (HHAPs) lack tools to scale emergency care responses. This study validated a forecasting tool for heatwave-related emergency department (ED) demand across four clusters comprising the emergency care network of Ticino Canton, Switzerland. Methods: This retrospective, ecological, time-series study modeled daily mean temperature and ED presentations using a distributed lag non-linear model framework with autoregressive and calendar adjustment components. The model was trained on summers (June-August) 2016-2024 a

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