Informing risk stratification and vaccine policy via a predictive mathematical model of SARS-COV-2 infection

SARS-CoV-2 human challenge studies enabled unprecedented high frequency temporal measurements of immune determinants of viral control. We integrated prior knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 replication, innate, cytotoxic T cell and antibody responses into a dynamic model which captured viral-load kinetics in seronegative volunteers challenged with wildtype virus. The model predicted measured innate and adaptive immune dynamics. Perturbation analyses indicated that innate immunity limits peak viral load, whereas antibodies principally mediate clearance while cytotoxic T cells become critical in antibody d

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