HPV-Stratified Causal Digital Twins for Personalized Survival Benefit Estimation in Head and Neck Cancer

Purpose: Digital-twin frameworks can potentially offer a pathway toward individualized treatment but remain largely untested in radiation oncology. We present a causal digital-twin model for head-and-neck (H&N) cancer that estimates patient-specific survival benefit from chemoradiotherapy (CRT) versus radiotherapy (RT) alone, stratified by HPV status. Methods: Using the public RADCURE cohort (n = 3,346), we developed a causal digital-twin framework in which patients were divided into HPV-positive and HPV-negative groups and assigned to training (RT start year [≤] 2007) and test sets (RT sta

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